tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39474982009-03-01T21:20:18.935+01:00Blow by blow coverage of the seemingly inexorable drift into deflation of the OECD worldEdward Hughnoreply@blogger.comBlogger114125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1159541779732750752006-09-29T16:55:00.000+02:002006-09-29T16:56:19.736+02:00

Time to dust the rust off this blog I think.Using a footballing analogy, all the economic defences seem to be 'ballwatching' at the moment, and looking at the inflation issue. But the recent fall in oilprices, and the developing slowdown seems to be resurrecting a danger that many felt was long dead: deflation.Look at this from Singapore:Singapore's inflation rate fell to an 11-month low in

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1145001396563215512006-04-14T09:42:00.000+02:002006-04-14T09:57:40.933+02:00

I've been posting about this topic from time to time on Bonobo Land ), and about how our idea of a national output gap may be somewhat quaint and outdated in a globalised world. "The global output gap" idea of Borrio and Filardo is an interesting one. To a great extent I go along with Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher's argument that in a globalised world the idea of a national output gap is

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1145000421245849942006-04-14T09:28:00.000+02:002006-04-14T09:40:21.256+02:00

The header refers to the title of a paper by two economists at the BIS (and this paper was the reason I was rumaging around the BIS site and came up with my last post. Basically New Economist has the details in his post How has globalisation affected inflation?. Basically NE suggests that "this chapter (in the latest IMF WEO), How Has Globalization Affected Inflation? (PDF), provides "robust

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1144999592024365622006-04-14T08:32:00.000+02:002006-04-14T09:27:47.633+02:00

Well, I'm back, after nearly two and a half years of absence, starting to limber up on the whole question of deflation again. Toady I thought about doing this after looking at this paper from two economists at the Bank of International Settlements: Claudio Borio and Andrew J Filardo, Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record. Here's the abstract:The rhetoric of deflation has become more

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1068315745069262192003-11-08T19:22:00.000+01:002006-03-30T09:48:00.496+02:00

This was my Day-to-Day Weblog on Deflation during the US deflation alert of 2002-2003. Since I am by no means convinced that this issue is compltely over the blog remains here in suspended animation, pending developments which might make its resussitation worthwhile. More Detailed in-depth commentary, analysis and links on the deflation phenomenon can be found on the Deflation Page on My Website

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1068314778803906322003-11-08T19:06:00.000+01:002003-11-08T19:06:40.186+01:00

Staggering Rise in US Labour Productivity US labour productivity may have risen at an astounding 8.5% in the third quater, at least that's what Bloomberg are telling us. Following close on the heals of a 7.2% growth in GDP for the same quarter these numbers clearly are incredible: frighteningly so. It is clear that something pretty important is happening, but I fear we may need to wait for the

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1068314179701811762003-11-08T18:56:00.000+01:002003-11-08T18:56:40.403+01:00

The 'Lump of Structural Reform' Fallacy I must have had a hard week, since I find myself leaning more and more on Joerg for inspiration. But I really do think he has a good point. Structural reforms are being converted into something quasi-physical, that need to be handed round and round...........and round. Apart from making ourselves all extremely dizzy, isn't there something rather

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274916511543612003-10-27T18:15:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:15:42.513+01:00

Only Known Export Jobs: Part I This, it seems, is going to be the title of a new series here. The title is plagiarised: former US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill (or was it GWB himself, help, someone?) once said of Argentina that it was a country with no known export industry, and it didn't seem to care. This was before the crash. Well I'm now throwing the jibe back: the only unambiguously

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274823218160562003-10-27T18:13:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:13:48.716+01:00

Sending the Jobs Back As I have said before, many people in Europe seem very complacent about this situation. Seeing the problem as one of call centres and the like, they feel vaguely re-assured that linguistic difficulties will mean that they are protected. But let me suggest another possibility. Having this backroom-office at its disposal, UK companies may become slightly more competitive

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274671081276322003-10-27T18:11:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:11:16.623+01:00

The Information Revolution and the Pele/Ronaldo Effect My Money Files Column The Information Revolution and the Pele/Ronaldo Effect One of histories deeper mysteries might revolve around what these two topics have in common, short of the fact that they are flying round my head at the time of writing. Let's see if I can find a connection. To start at the begining: one of the information

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274607254786522003-10-27T18:10:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:10:12.796+01:00

Strong US Third Quarter GDP Anticipated A fairly Upbeat piece on the US economy from Caroline Baum in Bloomberg today, even if her immediate prognosis is downbeat: she thinks - as does nearly everone else - that the third quarter GDP numbers will be high, but that they will fall back in the fourth. Nothing really controversial here. She is however fairly positive on what this will mean for

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274553819826452003-10-27T18:09:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:09:19.373+01:00

IS the US Importing Productivity? Stephen Roach raises some time honoured measurement problems about the current US productivity 'spurt'. The statistics in question are labour productivity statistics. The growth of oursourcing may be having the consequence of distorting the labour productivity statistics upwards. By how much we do not know. The labour component of the outsourced work may not be

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274471387122802003-10-27T18:07:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:07:56.966+01:00

America's 'Productivity Advantage' Brad had an interesting post some time back that I never got round to commenting on. Now's my opportunity:The French--and the British (I know: I've shopped in Britain)--are deprived of the opportunity to buy in the equivalent of CostCo and WalMart, and deprived of the opportunity to get lots of good stuff cheap by shopping at high-volume retailers who have

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274394935912202003-10-27T18:06:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:06:40.530+01:00

Better US Jobs Data Well, labour market numbers in the US are certainly improving this month. Remember, a number more like 350,000 new signings over a sustained period is what is required for stable jobs growth. But the market is picking up steam. Let's hope it stays that way. And remember, there are any number of 'hiccups' out there just waiting to hit. Ricardo Caballero describes the US

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274325336648012003-10-27T18:05:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:05:30.936+01:00

Where are All the Manufacturing Jobs Going? Well the answere seems to be 'nowhere', and fast, if you accept the arguments Caroline Baum advances in this article. And I'm sure in one sense she's right. Global employment in manufacturing is probably on the way down. There is more: one point she doesn't note about the China syndrome, is that as areas like Guandong grow, wages rise, and the really

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1067274246318483752003-10-27T18:04:00.000+01:002003-10-27T18:04:11.936+01:00

The Indian IT Impact Will India overtake the US in IT? An interesting question, and Andy Grove answers in the affirmative: by 2010!Observing that India and China are 'key threats' to continued American dominance in important high technology sectors, Intel Chairman Andrew S Grove has said India could surpass America in software and tech-service jobs by 2010. India's booming software industry,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065963567703370032003-10-12T14:59:00.000+02:002003-10-12T14:59:27.066+02:00

US Trade Balance With China Deteriorates Latest data on the US trade deficit shows the balance with China continues to deteriorate. I have a feeling we will be hearing more about this. For the rest, we shouldn't draw too many conclusions, August is definitely an 'untypical' month.The US trade gap with China widened to a record high in August even as America's overall deficit unexpectedly shrank

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065706121673257222003-10-09T15:28:00.000+02:002003-10-09T15:28:41.543+02:00

Driving the Next Wave of Job Creation Stephen Roach has a very important post today. Really here he gets hold of the central question for the future of the US economy. All the deficits in the world are supportable, if you can pay your way. But it is precisely this capacity to make the pay back which is put in question by the existence of IT-enabled outsourcing. As Roach continually reminds us,

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065706071708982832003-10-09T15:27:00.000+02:002003-10-09T15:27:51.500+02:00

More US Labour Market Data to Chew On Uncertainty over the state of the US labour market continues. Confounding those who felt that the household survey might be flagging a rather better than expected tendency, this latest Labour Department warning seems, on the face of it, to confirm the establishment data. We are talking about last year's data here, so it is difficult to draw andyhard and

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065209718763828362003-10-03T21:35:00.000+02:002003-10-03T21:35:18.436+02:00

US Economy: The Slippery Road to Recovery My Moneyfiles Column The US economic data we are seeing this week are a very mixed bag indeed. New claims for unemployment continue to hover round the 400,000 mark, new factory orders declined by 0.8% in August , consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since the start of the Iraq war, and yet apparently we are to believe we are on the verge

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065209610383418472003-10-03T21:33:00.000+02:002003-10-03T21:33:30.080+02:00

Irving Fisher on Debt Deflation Deflation and the value of the dollar are two of the topics on the US economy agenda, so I am grateful to Lloyd at Macro Mouse for sending me two links. One an interview with Richard Duncan on the dollar, the other a student essay which really does present an extremely well-argued presentation of Irving Fisher's theory of Debt Deflation.Irving Fisher

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065209511879365582003-10-03T21:31:00.000+02:002003-10-03T21:31:51.610+02:00

This Seems Nearer the Mark At last a report on the US economy which seems nearer to my own impression. Of course, just because I agree with it doesn't make it right.The U.S. economy faces at least another year of tepid growth despite a growing number of predictions that a stronger recovery is around the corner, according to a forecast released on Wednesday. The widely watched survey issued by

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065209448785320392003-10-03T21:30:00.000+02:002003-10-03T21:30:48.520+02:00

Currency: Going up anyone........Not Just Yet, After You Please Now the Economist is joining the curency debate. The G7 message was meant for China, but got lost in the post, and has ended up being delivered to Japan:Why does Japan want a cheap yen? A history of mercantilism may be part of it. A cheap yen is one way to capture lucrative export markets. But Japan also hopes that selling yen and

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065209374387098522003-10-03T21:29:00.000+02:002003-10-03T21:29:34.130+02:00

Steeling Jobs This piece from the Washington post puts an interesting light on the 'new protectionism' US style. The tarriffs help, logically, the steel industry, but the general impact on the economy is negative. In a politically driven economy it all depends on where the votes are I suppose. But please don't let them give me all that cant about believing in free markets, this preaching, it

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3947498.post-1065209331849349702003-10-03T21:28:00.000+02:002003-10-03T21:28:51.613+02:00

Will The Dollar Continue its Decline? After all the fire and fury in the currency markets yesterday, things are much calmer today. I have the impression that everyone is convinced that the dollar needs to come down substantially, but that nobody believes it is actually going to happen. Chinese reticence, Japanese dithering, and euroland alarm are amongst the various reasons one could think of.

Edward Hughnoreply@blogger.com